Walmart’s Strategic Pivot: Bypassing Agencies to Own the Retail Media Measurement Narrative

By Kimeko McCoy | October 22, 2026

In the high-stakes theater of retail media networks (RMNs), the hierarchy has long been established: Amazon sits on the throne, Walmart operates as the formidable challenger, and a crowded field of secondary retailers fights for the remaining scraps. However, as the 2026 holiday shopping season approaches, Walmart is signaling a desire to rewrite the rules of engagement. By bypassing traditional agency intermediaries and approaching brand clients directly with on-site brand lift studies, Walmart Connect is aggressively attempting to solidify its position as a full-funnel marketing partner.

This shift is not merely about sales volume; it is a calculated bid to control the industry’s most contentious narrative: measurement. As marketing budgets face unprecedented scrutiny, Walmart is attempting to prove that its advertising ecosystem does more than just harvest existing demand—it actively creates it.

The Core Conflict: Proving Incrementality

The fundamental tension in retail media today is the "incrementality dilemma." Advertisers are plagued by a persistent question: Did an RMN campaign actually drive a new, incremental sale, or did the retailer simply take credit for a purchase that a consumer was already planning to make?

Historically, fragmented data across various platforms, "walled-garden" data silos, and a lack of industry-wide standardization have left marketers with a disjointed, "hodge-podge" approach to their retail media investments. Walmart’s recent outreach—offering direct, on-site brand lift studies to brand clients—is a direct intervention into this uncertainty.

By offering these studies directly to brands, Walmart is attempting to shift the conversation from mere conversion metrics to holistic brand health. The move signals that the retail giant is no longer content to be viewed solely as a "lower-funnel conversion engine." Instead, it is positioning itself as a comprehensive partner capable of driving awareness, consideration, and intent.

A Chronology of the Shift

The move to approach advertisers directly did not happen in a vacuum. It follows a period of hyper-growth for the retail giant’s advertising arm.

• August 2026: Walmart reported a stellar second quarter, with its global ad business surging by 38%. This growth trajectory, which outpaces many of its competitors, provided the capital and the confidence to expand its service offerings.
• Late Q3 2026: In the weeks leading up to the critical Q4 holiday window, Walmart’s sales teams began quietly approaching brand partners. While large advertisers have long had access to one-off beta tests with Walmart, industry analysts note that this capability is now "trickling down" to a broader range of accounts.
• Present Day (October 2026): As brands finalize their 2027 media budgets and lock in their final Q4 spend, these brand lift studies have become a primary bargaining chip. Agencies, including Stella Rising and Mile Marker, report that multiple clients have been approached, though many brands remain hesitant to disclose the specifics of these direct relationships.

The Agency Dilemma: Disintermediation vs. Insight

For advertising agencies, Walmart’s direct-to-brand approach presents a complex set of challenges. On one hand, agencies are the primary advocates for their clients’ ROI. On the other, they are being bypassed in the technical execution of these studies.

"From our experience, Q4 is when advertisers are least willing to fund spend they cannot defend," explains Lacie Edgeman, co-owner and managing director of the ad agency PrograMetrix. For agencies, the goal is to justify every dollar spent. If Walmart’s internal studies can provide that justification, the agency’s job becomes easier—even if they are being sidelined in the process.

However, there is a lingering skepticism regarding the objectivity of these studies. Anthony Costanzo, chief analytics officer at Mile Marker, points to a recurring industry concern: "We’re still not able to execute the kinds of incrementality tests we’d like to, that we could do in a non-walled garden. We’re often seeing retailers ‘grading their own homework.’"

Despite these concerns, the sentiment among some agencies is one of pragmatic acceptance. A spokesperson for Stella Rising noted that, "Done well, they’re a win for both sides." The key, of course, is the "done well" caveat.

Supporting Data: The Retail Media Boom

The urgency behind Walmart’s move is rooted in the sheer scale of the retail media market. According to recent forecasts from eMarketer, advertisers are expected to shell out a staggering $69.33 billion on retail media by the end of 2026. As this figure climbs, so does the scrutiny from CFOs and CMOs.

Walmart’s 38% growth in Q2 is not an anomaly; it is part of a broader trend of brands shifting their budgets away from traditional display advertising and into the high-intent environment of retail sites. However, as the market matures, the "easy" growth of the past few years is disappearing. Brands are now demanding higher levels of sophistication in reporting.

By offering incrementality studies, Walmart is effectively creating a "differentiation angle." If they can prove that their platform is the primary catalyst for a sale, they can command a premium price for their inventory, effectively stripping market share from Amazon and other competitors who may not offer such granular, proprietary reporting.

Official Responses and Industry Sentiment

While Walmart did not respond to requests for comment regarding their direct-sales strategy, the industry’s response has been one of cautious optimism tempered by analytical skepticism.

The consensus among experts is that while these studies are a step in the right direction, they are not a panacea. The logistical burden remains significant:

1. Cost: These studies are often tied to specific spend requirements, making them inaccessible to smaller brands.
2. Time: The reporting cycle is slow. Edgeman notes that it can take up to nine weeks after a campaign concludes for final reporting to be delivered, a timeline that often clashes with the rapid, agile nature of digital marketing.
3. Transparency: Because the studies occur within Walmart’s own ecosystem, brands are forced to trust the retailer’s methodology. There is no external, neutral third-party oversight, which limits the ability of brands to compare Walmart’s performance against other channels.

Long-Term Implications for the Ecosystem

Walmart’s aggressive push into direct-brand relationships and proprietary measurement sets the stage for a new era of retail media competition. We can expect the following developments in the coming months:

1. The Rise of the "Full-Funnel" Retailer

Retailers will increasingly stop competing on inventory and start competing on measurement capabilities. The winner of the retail media wars will be the one who can best convince a brand’s CFO that the money spent was "incremental" rather than "cannibalized."

2. Further Disintermediation

If Walmart proves that it can successfully manage these relationships without agencies, other major retailers (such as Target, Kroger, or CVS) will likely follow suit. This puts agencies in a position where they must pivot from being "media buyers" to being "strategic consultants" who help brands interpret the data these retailers provide.

3. Increased Pressure for Standardization

The lack of a unified way to measure incrementality across different RMNs is becoming a liability for the entire industry. As brands become more sophisticated, they will likely push for industry-wide standards that transcend the walled gardens of individual retailers.

4. The 2027 Budget Battle

The data derived from these Q4 studies will serve as the foundation for 2027 media budgets. If Walmart’s studies show strong incrementality, they will likely see an outsized portion of 2027 budgets allocated to their platform. Conversely, if the studies are perceived as biased or ineffective, brands may push back, forcing Walmart to adopt more transparent, third-party verified measurement tools.

Conclusion

Walmart’s move to bypass agencies and offer direct brand lift studies is a bold, high-stakes gamble. By controlling the measurement narrative, they are attempting to cement their status as the primary alternative to Amazon. While the strategy offers clear benefits in terms of data insight and budget justification, it also highlights the growing pains of the retail media industry.

As we look toward the end of 2026, the question is no longer just "Who has the most shoppers?" but rather "Who can prove their value in a way that satisfies the bottom line?" For now, Walmart is betting that the answer is: "The one who owns the study."